Computer

Archive for December, 2008

Thanks to Kineo for pointing me to the Market Update recently released by Ambient Insight which forecasts a compound annual growth rate of 16.3% from 2008 to 2013 for learning technology products and services. The report notes that “the market is favorable for learning technology suppliers, despite, or perhaps because of, the recession.” The report forecasts especially rapid growth for collaborative e-learning, mobile learning, self-paced learning, and simulations and games.

Without wishing to dampen down these optimistic forecasts, it is worth remembering how fallible expert predictions can be. Nicholas Kristof’s recent posting Learning How to Think for NYTimes.com tries to uncover just why it is that experts get it so wrong so often. He cites Philip Tetlock, the expert on experts:

“His 2005 book, Expert Political Judgment, is based on two decades of tracking some 82,000 predictions by 284 experts. The experts’ forecasts were tracked both on the subjects of their specialties and on subjects that they knew little about. The result? The predictions of experts were, on average, only a tiny bit better than random guesses — the equivalent of a chimpanzee throwing darts at a board.”

Slightly more reliable are the stories of what is actually happening right now, as reported to the latest MASIE Center Barometer in Uncertain Times. Of the 532 respondents, 62% reported their enterprise learning budget going down (21% substantially), while only 12% said it was going up. Headcount is also being hit as 36% of respondents reported a reduction. At the same time, spending on external services (consultants, content development, etc.) is dropping in 60% of cases, and volume of classroom training in 50% of cases. The biggest impact is on travel for learning purposes, where 79% are reporting cuts, 51% substantially.

There are some notable increases: the volume of e-learning on offer is up in 51% of cases, with a similar rise reported for the use of web conferencing. In addition, the use of social learning is up in 30% of cases, games/simulations in 12%, and user-generated content in 29%.

As ever, MASIE Center results will be coloured by the fact that the respondents are self-selecting and favourably disposed to e-learning, but these are such powerful figures that it’s impossible to underestimate them.

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